The January 2026 U.S. special operation capturing Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and an apprehension force in Caracas did not qualify as an invasion under typical market criteria, since it involved no territorial occupation or sustained control over Venezuelan territory. Subsequent developments have reinforced low trader odds for a broader military offensive by late 2026, including rapid diplomatic normalization, sanctions relief on oil, embassy reopenings, and the interim Rodríguez government’s engagement in opposition talks. Bipartisan U.S. Senate resolutions in August 2026 calling for elections, combined with American focus on post-earthquake humanitarian aid and deportations, have further reduced escalation risks. Key variables include negotiation outcomes and any signals of renewed pressure that might cross the threshold of establishing control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWerden die USA in Venezuela einmarschieren, indem sie...?
Werden die USA in Venezuela einmarschieren, indem sie...?
$14,195,196 Vol.
31. März 2026
31. Dezember
4%
$14,195,196 Vol.
31. Dezember
$239,187 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. special operation capturing Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and an apprehension force in Caracas did not qualify as an invasion under typical market criteria, since it involved no territorial occupation or sustained control over Venezuelan territory. Subsequent developments have reinforced low trader odds for a broader military offensive by late 2026, including rapid diplomatic normalization, sanctions relief on oil, embassy reopenings, and the interim Rodríguez government’s engagement in opposition talks. Bipartisan U.S. Senate resolutions in August 2026 calling for elections, combined with American focus on post-earthquake humanitarian aid and deportations, have further reduced escalation risks. Key variables include negotiation outcomes and any signals of renewed pressure that might cross the threshold of establishing control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volumen
$14,195,196Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. special operation capturing Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and an apprehension force in Caracas did not qualify as an invasion under typical market criteria, since it involved no territorial occupation or sustained control over Venezuelan territory. Subsequent developments have reinforced low trader odds for a broader military offensive by late 2026, including rapid diplomatic normalization, sanctions relief on oil, embassy reopenings, and the interim Rodríguez government’s engagement in opposition talks. Bipartisan U.S. Senate resolutions in August 2026 calling for elections, combined with American focus on post-earthquake humanitarian aid and deportations, have further reduced escalation risks. Key variables include negotiation outcomes and any signals of renewed pressure that might cross the threshold of establishing control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$14,195,196Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The January 2026 U.S. special operation capturing Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and an apprehension force in Caracas did not qualify as an invasion under typical market criteria, since it involved no territorial occupation or sustained control over Venezuelan territory. Subsequent developments have reinforced low trader odds for a broader military offensive by late 2026, including rapid diplomatic normalization, sanctions relief on oil, embassy reopenings, and the interim Rodríguez government’s engagement in opposition talks. Bipartisan U.S. Senate resolutions in August 2026 calling for elections, combined with American focus on post-earthquake humanitarian aid and deportations, have further reduced escalation risks. Key variables include negotiation outcomes and any signals of renewed pressure that might cross the threshold of establishing control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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