US and Chinese leaders have both rejected proposals to pace the frontier of AI development, driving the 93% market-implied probability against any 2026 agreement. President Trump has dismissed slowdown calls as a “SICK conspiracy,” stressing the need to preserve America’s lead in frontier models and large language models, while Chinese officials labeled similar ideas from executives like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei as “fearmongering” and “malicious competition” aimed at hindering Beijing’s progress. Upcoming Trump-Xi talks in late September may address narrow AI safety issues such as cyberattacks, yet both sides prioritize accelerating capabilities and view unilateral restraint as strategically costly given verification challenges and the competitive landscape. A credible, verifiable pact on compute caps, safety requirements, or deployment limits remains improbable without major shifts in incentives or external shocks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
7% Chance
NEU
$12,732 Vol.
NEU
$12,732 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
7% Chance
NEU
$12,732 Vol.
NEU
$12,732 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US and Chinese leaders have both rejected proposals to pace the frontier of AI development, driving the 93% market-implied probability against any 2026 agreement. President Trump has dismissed slowdown calls as a “SICK conspiracy,” stressing the need to preserve America’s lead in frontier models and large language models, while Chinese officials labeled similar ideas from executives like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei as “fearmongering” and “malicious competition” aimed at hindering Beijing’s progress. Upcoming Trump-Xi talks in late September may address narrow AI safety issues such as cyberattacks, yet both sides prioritize accelerating capabilities and view unilateral restraint as strategically costly given verification challenges and the competitive landscape. A credible, verifiable pact on compute caps, safety requirements, or deployment limits remains improbable without major shifts in incentives or external shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 14, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Volumen
$12,732Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 4:40 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US and Chinese leaders have both rejected proposals to pace the frontier of AI development, driving the 93% market-implied probability against any 2026 agreement. President Trump has dismissed slowdown calls as a “SICK conspiracy,” stressing the need to preserve America’s lead in frontier models and large language models, while Chinese officials labeled similar ideas from executives like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei as “fearmongering” and “malicious competition” aimed at hindering Beijing’s progress. Upcoming Trump-Xi talks in late September may address narrow AI safety issues such as cyberattacks, yet both sides prioritize accelerating capabilities and view unilateral restraint as strategically costly given verification challenges and the competitive landscape. A credible, verifiable pact on compute caps, safety requirements, or deployment limits remains improbable without major shifts in incentives or external shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$12,732Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 4:40 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...US and Chinese leaders have both rejected proposals to pace the frontier of AI development, driving the 93% market-implied probability against any 2026 agreement. President Trump has dismissed slowdown calls as a “SICK conspiracy,” stressing the need to preserve America’s lead in frontier models and large language models, while Chinese officials labeled similar ideas from executives like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei as “fearmongering” and “malicious competition” aimed at hindering Beijing’s progress. Upcoming Trump-Xi talks in late September may address narrow AI safety issues such as cyberattacks, yet both sides prioritize accelerating capabilities and view unilateral restraint as strategically costly given verification challenges and the competitive landscape. A credible, verifiable pact on compute caps, safety requirements, or deployment limits remains improbable without major shifts in incentives or external shocks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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