China’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 1.9%
$32,916 Vol.
$32,916 Vol.
19. Okt. 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
47%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 1.9%
$32,916 Vol.
$32,916 Vol.
19. Okt. 2026
<3.4%
$1,221 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,334 Vol.
19%
4.3-4.6%
$12,516 Vol.
47%
4.6-4.9%
$8,763 Vol.
36%
4.9-5.2%
$3,349 Vol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$1,476 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Markt eröffnet: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volumen
$32,916Enddatum
20. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$32,916Enddatum
20. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years and below the 4.5% consensus, amid softening domestic demand, property-sector drag, and an oil-price shock that offset resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. H1 growth reached 4.7%, staying inside the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet August manufacturing PMI contracted for a second month at 49.8 while early-Q3 activity indicators point to further moderation near 4%. These data have anchored Polymarket pricing on the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% intervals, reflecting trader expectations that incremental fiscal support following the July Politburo meeting will provide only modest stabilization ahead of the October 20 release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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