Skip to main content
icon for Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)

Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)

icon for Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)

Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)

60% or more 60%

50% to 59% 31%

40% to 49% <1%

Under 40% <1%

Polymarket
NEU

60% or more 60%

50% to 59% 31%

40% to 49% <1%

Under 40% <1%

Polymarket
NEU

Under 40%

$1,270 Vol.

1%

40% to 49%

$801 Vol.

1%

50% to 59%

$3,378 Vol.

31%

60% or more

$1,926 Vol.

60%

This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections. If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap. If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data show 58% of cattle inventory area already affected by drought as of August 25, 2026, with rapid expansion across the Southern Plains, High Plains, and South driven by a persistent high-pressure dome, extreme heat exceeding 100–110°F, and below-normal precipitation. Official monitoring from NOAA and USDA highlights continued degradation in key ranching states including Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, where flash drought impacts include depleted stock ponds and stressed forage. This positions the 60%+ outcome as the market leader amid ongoing expansion, while the 50–59% bracket reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus for early September relief. Upcoming USDM updates will incorporate new satellite and ground observations to refine these thresholds.

This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.

If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.

If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Volumen
$7,374
Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections. If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap. If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections. If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap. If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data show 58% of cattle inventory area already affected by drought as of August 25, 2026, with rapid expansion across the Southern Plains, High Plains, and South driven by a persistent high-pressure dome, extreme heat exceeding 100–110°F, and below-normal precipitation. Official monitoring from NOAA and USDA highlights continued degradation in key ranching states including Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, where flash drought impacts include depleted stock ponds and stressed forage. This positions the 60%+ outcome as the market leader amid ongoing expansion, while the 50–59% bracket reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus for early September relief. Upcoming USDM updates will incorporate new satellite and ground observations to refine these thresholds.

This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.

If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.

If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Volumen
$7,374
Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections. If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap. If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.

Verwandte

icon for What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)

What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)

80%
icon for Wird Texas diese Woche D4 (außergewöhnliche Dürre) haben?

Wird Texas diese Woche D4 (außergewöhnliche Dürre) haben?

99%
Ja
icon for Werden diese Woche 10 oder mehr Bundesstaaten in D4 (außergewöhnlicher Dürre) sein?

Werden diese Woche 10 oder mehr Bundesstaaten in D4 (außergewöhnlicher Dürre) sein?

47%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 4 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „60% or more" mit 60%, gefolgt von „50% to 59%" mit 31%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 60¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 60% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 25, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 4 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)" ist „60% or more" mit 60%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 60% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „50% to 59%" mit 31%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wie viel Prozent der US-Rinderbestandfläche wird in Dürre sein? (Woche vom 1. September)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.