Recent polling shows the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette closing rapidly on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with a late-August Synopsis survey placing the two parties statistically tied at 27-28% after the CAQ gained seven points in two weeks. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the CAQ at roughly 25% of the vote and a median of 28 seats (wide range 9-48), reflecting vote-efficiency challenges and many tight races. The broad distribution of market probabilities around 25-35 seats captures this volatility, the ongoing campaign dynamics, and uncertainty over whether the CAQ rebound will hold or widen among francophone and older voters amid the early contest with the PQ.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert30+ 42%
25–29 22%
20-24 15%
15-19 11%
NEU
NEU
5. Okt. 2026
<5
2%
5-9
8%
10-14
9%
15-19
11%
20-24
15%
25–29
22%
30+
42%
30+ 42%
25–29 22%
20-24 15%
15-19 11%
NEU
NEU
5. Okt. 2026
<5
$501 Vol.
2%
5-9
$907 Vol.
8%
10-14
$2,306 Vol.
9%
15-19
$858 Vol.
11%
20-24
$621 Vol.
15%
25–29
$1,002 Vol.
22%
30+
$1,553 Vol.
42%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette closing rapidly on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with a late-August Synopsis survey placing the two parties statistically tied at 27-28% after the CAQ gained seven points in two weeks. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the CAQ at roughly 25% of the vote and a median of 28 seats (wide range 9-48), reflecting vote-efficiency challenges and many tight races. The broad distribution of market probabilities around 25-35 seats captures this volatility, the ongoing campaign dynamics, and uncertainty over whether the CAQ rebound will hold or widen among francophone and older voters amid the early contest with the PQ.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volumen
$7,748Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette closing rapidly on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with a late-August Synopsis survey placing the two parties statistically tied at 27-28% after the CAQ gained seven points in two weeks. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the CAQ at roughly 25% of the vote and a median of 28 seats (wide range 9-48), reflecting vote-efficiency challenges and many tight races. The broad distribution of market probabilities around 25-35 seats captures this volatility, the ongoing campaign dynamics, and uncertainty over whether the CAQ rebound will hold or widen among francophone and older voters amid the early contest with the PQ.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$7,748Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette closing rapidly on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with a late-August Synopsis survey placing the two parties statistically tied at 27-28% after the CAQ gained seven points in two weeks. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the CAQ at roughly 25% of the vote and a median of 28 seats (wide range 9-48), reflecting vote-efficiency challenges and many tight races. The broad distribution of market probabilities around 25-35 seats captures this volatility, the ongoing campaign dynamics, and uncertainty over whether the CAQ rebound will hold or widen among francophone and older voters amid the early contest with the PQ.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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