Recent ensemble forecasts from major centers highlight uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over Paris for September 21, supporting the tight market-implied odds clustered around 9–11°C. Clear skies and light winds under a high-pressure ridge favor enhanced surface heat loss, yet variable Atlantic moisture and potential thin cloud layers could limit minimum temperatures. Current model consensus points to a modest cool anomaly relative to the typical early-autumn baseline near 12°C, with boundary-layer stability and dewpoint forecasts as key variables. Traders await the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official Météo-France guidance for sharper resolution on these factors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 21. September?
9°C oder weniger 70%
12°C 36%
13°C 29%
14°C 29%
9°C oder weniger
70%
10°C
29%
11°C
24%
12°C
36%
13°C
29%
14°C
29%
15°C
29%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C oder höher
2%
9°C oder weniger 70%
12°C 36%
13°C 29%
14°C 29%
9°C oder weniger
70%
10°C
29%
11°C
24%
12°C
36%
13°C
29%
14°C
29%
15°C
29%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major centers highlight uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over Paris for September 21, supporting the tight market-implied odds clustered around 9–11°C. Clear skies and light winds under a high-pressure ridge favor enhanced surface heat loss, yet variable Atlantic moisture and potential thin cloud layers could limit minimum temperatures. Current model consensus points to a modest cool anomaly relative to the typical early-autumn baseline near 12°C, with boundary-layer stability and dewpoint forecasts as key variables. Traders await the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official Météo-France guidance for sharper resolution on these factors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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