Recent model consensus from global numerical weather prediction systems points to Moscow's overnight minimum on August 31 hovering near 12–15 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14 °C. Variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds are the key variables: clearer intervals allow greater longwave radiative cooling toward the lower end of that range, while increased humidity and cloudiness limit the drop. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to verification, with official guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models showing only small differences in boundary-layer moisture. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes near the median forecast while discounting outliers below 10 °C or above 16 °C given current atmospheric conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Moskau am 31. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Moskau am 31. August?
9°C or below 89%
19°C or higher 86%
17°C 50%
13°C 48%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
9°C or below
89%
10°C
45%
11°C
45%
12°C
46%
13°C
48%
14°C
48%
15°C
46%
16°C
47%
17°C
50%
18°C
45%
19°C or higher
86%
9°C or below 89%
19°C or higher 86%
17°C 50%
13°C 48%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
9°C or below
$66 Vol.
89%
10°C
$60 Vol.
45%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
46%
13°C
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
48%
15°C
$0 Vol.
46%
16°C
$0 Vol.
47%
17°C
$5 Vol.
50%
18°C
$10 Vol.
45%
19°C or higher
$150 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global numerical weather prediction systems points to Moscow's overnight minimum on August 31 hovering near 12–15 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14 °C. Variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds are the key variables: clearer intervals allow greater longwave radiative cooling toward the lower end of that range, while increased humidity and cloudiness limit the drop. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to verification, with official guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models showing only small differences in boundary-layer moisture. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes near the median forecast while discounting outliers below 10 °C or above 16 °C given current atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$291Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global numerical weather prediction systems points to Moscow's overnight minimum on August 31 hovering near 12–15 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14 °C. Variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds are the key variables: clearer intervals allow greater longwave radiative cooling toward the lower end of that range, while increased humidity and cloudiness limit the drop. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to verification, with official guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models showing only small differences in boundary-layer moisture. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes near the median forecast while discounting outliers below 10 °C or above 16 °C given current atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$291Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from global numerical weather prediction systems points to Moscow's overnight minimum on August 31 hovering near 12–15 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14 °C. Variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds are the key variables: clearer intervals allow greater longwave radiative cooling toward the lower end of that range, while increased humidity and cloudiness limit the drop. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to verification, with official guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European models showing only small differences in boundary-layer moisture. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes near the median forecast while discounting outliers below 10 °C or above 16 °C given current atmospheric conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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