Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, following 2025 military strikes on the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, remain the central driver of market positioning. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under interim agreements reached in June 2026, though Iranian officials have rejected new commitments and indicated access depends on a final accord. IAEA reports from February and June 2026 highlight urgent needs for verification at the Isfahan tunnel complex due to observed vehicular activity and storage of highly enriched uranium, while noting limited or selective access since the strikes. Iran has resumed inspections at some unaffected sites but maintains discretion over bombed facilities. Key upcoming factors include further U.S.-Iran talks, IAEA Board resolutions urging cooperation, and any new MoUs that could trigger visits before year-end deadlines. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and sovereignty hurdles amid active conflict aftermath.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDie IAEO besucht den Kernkraftwerksstandort Isfahan, Fordo oder Natanz bis zum...?
Die IAEO besucht den Kernkraftwerksstandort Isfahan, Fordo oder Natanz bis zum...?
$352,934 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
31. August
1%
31. Oktober
7%
31. Dezember
22%
$352,934 Vol.
31. August
$54,227 Vol.
1%
31. Oktober
$79,331 Vol.
7%
31. Dezember
$26,052 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, following 2025 military strikes on the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, remain the central driver of market positioning. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under interim agreements reached in June 2026, though Iranian officials have rejected new commitments and indicated access depends on a final accord. IAEA reports from February and June 2026 highlight urgent needs for verification at the Isfahan tunnel complex due to observed vehicular activity and storage of highly enriched uranium, while noting limited or selective access since the strikes. Iran has resumed inspections at some unaffected sites but maintains discretion over bombed facilities. Key upcoming factors include further U.S.-Iran talks, IAEA Board resolutions urging cooperation, and any new MoUs that could trigger visits before year-end deadlines. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and sovereignty hurdles amid active conflict aftermath.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
Volumen
$352,934Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, following 2025 military strikes on the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, remain the central driver of market positioning. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under interim agreements reached in June 2026, though Iranian officials have rejected new commitments and indicated access depends on a final accord. IAEA reports from February and June 2026 highlight urgent needs for verification at the Isfahan tunnel complex due to observed vehicular activity and storage of highly enriched uranium, while noting limited or selective access since the strikes. Iran has resumed inspections at some unaffected sites but maintains discretion over bombed facilities. Key upcoming factors include further U.S.-Iran talks, IAEA Board resolutions urging cooperation, and any new MoUs that could trigger visits before year-end deadlines. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and sovereignty hurdles amid active conflict aftermath.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$352,934Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, following 2025 military strikes on the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, remain the central driver of market positioning. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under interim agreements reached in June 2026, though Iranian officials have rejected new commitments and indicated access depends on a final accord. IAEA reports from February and June 2026 highlight urgent needs for verification at the Isfahan tunnel complex due to observed vehicular activity and storage of highly enriched uranium, while noting limited or selective access since the strikes. Iran has resumed inspections at some unaffected sites but maintains discretion over bombed facilities. Key upcoming factors include further U.S.-Iran talks, IAEA Board resolutions urging cooperation, and any new MoUs that could trigger visits before year-end deadlines. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and sovereignty hurdles amid active conflict aftermath.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird Reza Pahlavi bis zum 31. Dezember in den Iran einreisen?
6%
Ja
Wird Steve Witkoff bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 an einem diplomatischen Treffen zwischen den USA und dem Iran teilnehmen?
51%
Ja
Wird bis zum 30. September 2026 kein qualifiziertes diplomatisches Treffen zwischen den USA und Iran stattfinden?
74%
Ja
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