Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative election follows the first full four-year Knesset term since 1988, after the 25th Knesset dissolved itself in July amid coalition fractures over Haredi draft exemptions and other issues. Current polling shows a fragmented outcome, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc and the opposing Zionist parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together each falling short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in most surveys. Proportional representation, the 3.25% electoral threshold, and the potential role of smaller parties or Arab lists as kingmakers shape post-election coalition talks. Traders assign 71% probability to government formation after this single vote, reflecting expectations that negotiations—while potentially extended—will produce a viable coalition before further elections become necessary.