Recent ECB actions and revised staff projections explain the 86% trader consensus against a rate cut in 2026. On June 11 the Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, citing upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. Eurosystem projections now show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up from the prior 2.6% forecast, while growth was marked lower at 0.8%. Markets price further tightening later in the year, and the central bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance leaves little room for easing unless inflation undershoots substantially. These developments have shifted expectations firmly toward stable or higher rates through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$28,257 Vol.
$28,257 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$28,257 Vol.
$28,257 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ECB actions and revised staff projections explain the 86% trader consensus against a rate cut in 2026. On June 11 the Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, citing upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. Eurosystem projections now show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up from the prior 2.6% forecast, while growth was marked lower at 0.8%. Markets price further tightening later in the year, and the central bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance leaves little room for easing unless inflation undershoots substantially. These developments have shifted expectations firmly toward stable or higher rates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$28,257Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ECB actions and revised staff projections explain the 86% trader consensus against a rate cut in 2026. On June 11 the Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, citing upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. Eurosystem projections now show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up from the prior 2.6% forecast, while growth was marked lower at 0.8%. Markets price further tightening later in the year, and the central bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance leaves little room for easing unless inflation undershoots substantially. These developments have shifted expectations firmly toward stable or higher rates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,257Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent ECB actions and revised staff projections explain the 86% trader consensus against a rate cut in 2026. On June 11 the Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, citing upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. Eurosystem projections now show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up from the prior 2.6% forecast, while growth was marked lower at 0.8%. Markets price further tightening later in the year, and the central bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance leaves little room for easing unless inflation undershoots substantially. These developments have shifted expectations firmly toward stable or higher rates through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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