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icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

Lula da Silva <5% 44%

Lula da Silva 5–10 % 38%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%

Lula da Silva 10–15 % 5.3%

Polymarket

$387,252 Vol.

Lula da Silva <5% 44%

Lula da Silva 5–10 % 38%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%

Lula da Silva 10–15 % 5.3%

Polymarket

$387,252 Vol.

icon for Lula da Silva 15%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

$16,870 Vol.

4%

icon for Lula da Silva 10–15 %

Lula da Silva 10–15 %

$34,880 Vol.

5%

icon for Lula da Silva 5–10 %

Lula da Silva 5–10 %

$27,668 Vol.

38%

icon for Lula da Silva <5%

Lula da Silva <5%

$34,352 Vol.

44%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+

Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+

$12,161 Vol.

3%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %

$10,242 Vol.

2%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$17,207 Vol.

6%

icon for Sieg von Renan Santos

Sieg von Renan Santos

$212,451 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg

Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg

$7,371 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior Sieg

Ratinho Júnior Sieg

$6,710 Vol.

<1%

icon for Andere

Andere

$7,340 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$387,252
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$387,252
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

89%
Ja
icon for Wird Lula in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 die meisten Stimmen erhalten?

Wird Lula in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 die meisten Stimmen erhalten?

90%
Ja
icon for Wird Augusto Cury in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

Wird Augusto Cury in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

52%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Lula da Silva <5%" mit 44%, gefolgt von „Lula da Silva 5–10 %" mit 38%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 44¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $387.3K generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 11, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 11 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist „Lula da Silva <5%" mit 44%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Lula da Silva 5–10 %" mit 38%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.