Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) in a narrow 15–18% band, with Infratest dimap at 18%, Forsa at 16%, and INSA and Civey at 15%. This range has held steady through August amid a tight four-way contest among the CDU, Die Linke, and AfD for the top spot and a weak SPD performance. Trader pricing for 14–17% as the modal outcome tracks these surveys, while the lower probability attached to 20%+ reflects the absence of any sustained upward movement for the party in the final weeks. Possible coalition scenarios involving the Greens remain secondary to the immediate vote-share question.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert14-17 % 48%
17-20 % 31%
<14 % 22%
20%+ 3.6%
$18,948 Vol.
$18,948 Vol.
<14 %
22%
14-17 %
48%
17-20 %
31%
20%+
4%
14-17 % 48%
17-20 % 31%
<14 % 22%
20%+ 3.6%
$18,948 Vol.
$18,948 Vol.
<14 %
22%
14-17 %
48%
17-20 %
31%
20%+
4%
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) in a narrow 15–18% band, with Infratest dimap at 18%, Forsa at 16%, and INSA and Civey at 15%. This range has held steady through August amid a tight four-way contest among the CDU, Die Linke, and AfD for the top spot and a weak SPD performance. Trader pricing for 14–17% as the modal outcome tracks these surveys, while the lower probability attached to 20%+ reflects the absence of any sustained upward movement for the party in the final weeks. Possible coalition scenarios involving the Greens remain secondary to the immediate vote-share question.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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