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icon for Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges
Politik·Deutschland

Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges

icon for Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges
Politik·Deutschland

Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges

AfD 15-20 % 51%

AfD 20-25% 36%

AfD 25 %+ 28%

AfD 10-15 % 17%

Polymarket
NEU

AfD 15-20 % 51%

AfD 20-25% 36%

AfD 25 %+ 28%

AfD 10-15 % 17%

Polymarket
NEU

AfD 25 %+

$59 Vol.

28%

AfD 20-25%

$225 Vol.

41%

AfD 15-20 %

$295 Vol.

40%

AfD 10-15 %

$251 Vol.

17%

AfD <10%

$59 Vol.

2%

Andere

$507 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling in the final days before the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the AfD holding a stable lead of roughly 18-21 percentage points over the CDU, with the right-wing party at 40-43% and the center-right incumbent party at 22-23%. Multiple surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, and Infratest dimap confirm this positioning, with the Linke, SPD, and Greens trailing further behind and smaller parties like the FDP and BSW at risk of missing the 5% threshold. The AfD's consistent advantage stems from long-term shifts in voter preferences in the eastern state, while other parties maintain a firewall against coalitions. These trends position a 15-20 point margin as the consensus outcome among traders, reflecting the latest campaign dynamics ahead of election night.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.

If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volumen
$1,396
Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling in the final days before the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the AfD holding a stable lead of roughly 18-21 percentage points over the CDU, with the right-wing party at 40-43% and the center-right incumbent party at 22-23%. Multiple surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, and Infratest dimap confirm this positioning, with the Linke, SPD, and Greens trailing further behind and smaller parties like the FDP and BSW at risk of missing the 5% threshold. The AfD's consistent advantage stems from long-term shifts in voter preferences in the eastern state, while other parties maintain a firewall against coalitions. These trends position a 15-20 point margin as the consensus outcome among traders, reflecting the latest campaign dynamics ahead of election night.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election.

If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election.

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volumen
$1,396
Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Will AfD win between 39% and 42% of all valid second votes?

Will AfD win between 39% and 42% of all valid second votes?

41%
icon for Wird die SPD zwischen 7 % und 9 % aller gültigen Zweitstimmen gewinnen?

Wird die SPD zwischen 7 % und 9 % aller gültigen Zweitstimmen gewinnen?

57%
Ja
icon for Wird die Grüne zwischen 5 % und 7 % aller gültigen Zweitstimmen erreichen?

Wird die Grüne zwischen 5 % und 7 % aller gültigen Zweitstimmen erreichen?

63%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „AfD 20-25%" mit 41%, gefolgt von „AfD 15-20 %" mit 40%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 41¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 41% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 1, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Sachsen-Anhalt Parlamentswahl: Marge des Sieges" ist „AfD 20-25%" mit 41%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 41% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „AfD 15-20 %" mit 40%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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