Argentina’s September 2026 monthly CPI release, due in mid-October, features closely matched trader probabilities between the 1.9–2.1% (47.0%) and 1.6–1.8% (43.5%) brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether the disinflation trend persists. August’s 1.7% print—the lowest in 14 months—eased from July’s 2.1% amid stable core inflation at 1.8%, supported by the peso’s crawling-peg regime, fiscal surplus, and subdued seasonal pressures. Key swing factors include regulated price adjustments in housing and utilities, food and beverage contributions, and any acceleration in services. Year-to-date inflation stands near 21.3% with annual rates around 33.5%, while the central bank’s REM survey anticipates a full-year 2026 figure near 30%. Recent bond market gains and lower country risk underscore improving sentiment, though weak growth and labor market softness could influence future policy calibration.