Strong bilateral security cooperation, explicit Mexican rejection of unilateral intervention, and the absence of congressional authorization or large-scale U.S. force mobilization underpin the 97.7% trader consensus on “No.” U.S. officials have issued mixed signals about possible strikes on cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations, yet Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly ruled out any invasion or U.S. troops on Mexican soil, emphasizing joint efforts instead. Economic interdependence through USMCA, low border encounter levels, and continued diplomatic engagement further anchor expectations against a full military offensive to establish territorial control by year-end. Limited scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid deterioration in fentanyl flows prompting a policy reversal or unforeseen escalation, though no such trajectory appears underway.