Current conditions show no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, following the dissipation of Hurricane Genevieve on August 2. Trader consensus at 76% for formation by August 14 reflects the mid-August timing near the seasonal peak, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns favor genesis, combined with NOAA's above-normal 2026 outlook projecting 15-22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific. Official NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate low near-term probabilities from existing disturbances, yet model guidance and climatology support potential development within the five-day window. Market-implied odds capture this balance of seasonal risk against the absence of immediate systems.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
74% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 15, 2026
74% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current conditions show no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, following the dissipation of Hurricane Genevieve on August 2. Trader consensus at 76% for formation by August 14 reflects the mid-August timing near the seasonal peak, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns favor genesis, combined with NOAA's above-normal 2026 outlook projecting 15-22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific. Official NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate low near-term probabilities from existing disturbances, yet model guidance and climatology support potential development within the five-day window. Market-implied odds capture this balance of seasonal risk against the absence of immediate systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
ভলিউম
$798শেষ তারিখ
Aug 15, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current conditions show no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, following the dissipation of Hurricane Genevieve on August 2. Trader consensus at 76% for formation by August 14 reflects the mid-August timing near the seasonal peak, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns favor genesis, combined with NOAA's above-normal 2026 outlook projecting 15-22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific. Official NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate low near-term probabilities from existing disturbances, yet model guidance and climatology support potential development within the five-day window. Market-implied odds capture this balance of seasonal risk against the absence of immediate systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
ভলিউম
$798শেষ তারিখ
Aug 15, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Current conditions show no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, following the dissipation of Hurricane Genevieve on August 2. Trader consensus at 76% for formation by August 14 reflects the mid-August timing near the seasonal peak, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns favor genesis, combined with NOAA's above-normal 2026 outlook projecting 15-22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific. Official NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks indicate low near-term probabilities from existing disturbances, yet model guidance and climatology support potential development within the five-day window. Market-implied odds capture this balance of seasonal risk against the absence of immediate systems.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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