The market-implied odds favor Cristobal as the first hurricane of the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, which has so far produced only two tropical storms—Arthur in June and Bertha in July—without any systems reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing rapid intensification and steering patterns that historically limit early-season hurricane formation. This favors the next name on the list, Cristobal, or closely following systems like Dolly and Edouard if development occurs during the August–September peak. National Hurricane Center forecasts and ensemble models continue to highlight uncertainty in timing and intensity, with traders weighting near-term environmental conditions and climatological analogs heavily in assessing which storm first meets hurricane criteria.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
40%
Dolly
30%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
5%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
8%
Omar
9%
Paulette
10%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
5%
Other
4%
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$162 Vol.
40%
Dolly
$86 Vol.
30%
Edouard
$222 Vol.
19%
Fay
$72 Vol.
5%
Gonzalo
$72 Vol.
4%
Hanna
$73 Vol.
5%
Isaias
$88 Vol.
5%
Josephine
$55 Vol.
5%
Kyle
$94 Vol.
4%
Leah
$59 Vol.
3%
Marco
$107 Vol.
9%
Nana
$51 Vol.
8%
Omar
$63 Vol.
9%
Paulette
$67 Vol.
10%
Rene
$63 Vol.
5%
Sally
$131 Vol.
3%
Teddy
$63 Vol.
5%
Vicky
$90 Vol.
8%
Wilfred
$118 Vol.
5%
Other
$63 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The market-implied odds favor Cristobal as the first hurricane of the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, which has so far produced only two tropical storms—Arthur in June and Bertha in July—without any systems reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing rapid intensification and steering patterns that historically limit early-season hurricane formation. This favors the next name on the list, Cristobal, or closely following systems like Dolly and Edouard if development occurs during the August–September peak. National Hurricane Center forecasts and ensemble models continue to highlight uncertainty in timing and intensity, with traders weighting near-term environmental conditions and climatological analogs heavily in assessing which storm first meets hurricane criteria.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,801শেষ তারিখ
Dec 2, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The market-implied odds favor Cristobal as the first hurricane of the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, which has so far produced only two tropical storms—Arthur in June and Bertha in July—without any systems reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing rapid intensification and steering patterns that historically limit early-season hurricane formation. This favors the next name on the list, Cristobal, or closely following systems like Dolly and Edouard if development occurs during the August–September peak. National Hurricane Center forecasts and ensemble models continue to highlight uncertainty in timing and intensity, with traders weighting near-term environmental conditions and climatological analogs heavily in assessing which storm first meets hurricane criteria.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
ভলিউম
$1,801শেষ তারিখ
Dec 2, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds favor Cristobal as the first hurricane of the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, which has so far produced only two tropical storms—Arthur in June and Bertha in July—without any systems reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing rapid intensification and steering patterns that historically limit early-season hurricane formation. This favors the next name on the list, Cristobal, or closely following systems like Dolly and Edouard if development occurs during the August–September peak. National Hurricane Center forecasts and ensemble models continue to highlight uncertainty in timing and intensity, with traders weighting near-term environmental conditions and climatological analogs heavily in assessing which storm first meets hurricane criteria.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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