Trump's references to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" have remained rhetorical or humorous amid U.S.-Iran tensions and related naval developments, with no formal executive orders, legislation, or international agreements advancing an official name change. Renaming an internationally recognized waterway requires coordinated diplomatic, legal, and cartographic processes across multiple sovereign actors that extend well beyond unilateral U.S. actions. Trader consensus at 95% for "No" by year-end reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any scheduled procedural steps or policy announcements that would trigger resolution. Late developments such as an unexpected executive memorandum or major shift in control over the strait could still alter probabilities before December 31.