NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense clause has remained uninvoked since its sole use after the 2001 attacks, with recent trader consensus at 94% against activation before 2027 reflecting contained escalation risks. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced unified pledges of €70 billion in aid and training for Ukraine through 2027, alongside continued diplomatic pressure for negotiations, without evidence of direct attacks on alliance territory or new fronts involving NATO members. Russian statements reiterate maximalist goals in Ukraine but have not produced verified cross-border actions against Poland, the Baltics, or other allies that would meet the armed-attack threshold. Ongoing U.S.-European coordination on sanctions, military assistance short of direct involvement, and historical reliance on Article 4 consultations rather than full invocation further underpin the low implied probability of near-term triggering.