Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president by parliament in January 2025, ending a two-year vacancy with broad backing from domestic factions and international partners including the United States and Saudi Arabia. His six-year term, combined with his prior role as army commander and ongoing diplomatic engagement—such as July 2026 White House talks focused on Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction aid, and Hezbollah disarmament—underpins the 96 percent trader consensus that he will remain in office through December 31. Recent verifiable developments show no parliamentary moves, constitutional challenges, or health-related announcements that would trigger early exit under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden resignation amid major security deterioration or a successful no-confidence process, though both face high procedural and political hurdles before year-end.