**Forecast models from sources including MetService equivalents and international agencies converge on a maximum temperature of 12–13°C for Wellington on August 2, 2026, under typical mid-winter conditions.** Clear to partly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit daytime warming, consistent with the seasonal climate outlook from NIWA indicating near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the June–August period in the Wellington region. Historical climatology shows August daily highs averaging near 12–13°C (around 54°F), with limited variability absent strong northerly flows or blocking highs. Recent observations of 12–13°C maxima in late July have reinforced trader consensus around these central outcomes, while the low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 10°C or below or 16°C+) reflect the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-range temperature forecasts this close to the event. No significant model divergence or incoming weather systems appear poised to shift the range substantially before resolution.