Forecast models from agencies like ECMWF and national meteorological services indicate Warsaw will experience peak highs of 37–39°C on August 5 amid an ongoing heatwave, with 38°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 31.5%. Recent observations of temperatures approaching or exceeding 37°C across Poland, combined with clear skies and light winds favoring maximum solar heating, support these outcomes over lower or higher extremes. Subtle differences in model runs—particularly regarding afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer moisture, or the precise timing of the thermal peak—account for the close distribution between 37°C, 38°C, and 39°C. Traders weigh historical August baselines near 23–25°C against current anomalous conditions, with resolution hinging on official station readings at the end of the calendar day.