**Elevated but moderating inflation and a stable labor market underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, while residual energy-driven price pressures support the 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.5% in June), with core at 2.5%, as gasoline and other energy costs eased from their May peak amid the Middle East supply shock. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August with steady payroll gains, keeping the Fed’s dual mandate in relative balance. Policymakers under Chair Kevin Warsh have stressed returning inflation to 2%, and the July dot plot showed several participants favoring higher rates by year-end. Traders appear to view the recent disinflation trend and solid growth as sufficient for the Committee to hold the 3.50–3.75% target range again in October, though upside inflation surprises or renewed energy volatility could still shift the path. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15–16 FOMC decision will provide the next key inputs.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,339,082 Vol.
$1,339,082 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,339,082 Vol.
$1,339,082 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$225,388 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$495,351 Vol.
3%
No change
$218,548 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$245,511 Vol.
31%
50+ bps increase
$154,284 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated but moderating inflation and a stable labor market underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, while residual energy-driven price pressures support the 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike.**
July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.5% in June), with core at 2.5%, as gasoline and other energy costs eased from their May peak amid the Middle East supply shock. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August with steady payroll gains, keeping the Fed’s dual mandate in relative balance. Policymakers under Chair Kevin Warsh have stressed returning inflation to 2%, and the July dot plot showed several participants favoring higher rates by year-end.
Traders appear to view the recent disinflation trend and solid growth as sufficient for the Committee to hold the 3.50–3.75% target range again in October, though upside inflation surprises or renewed energy volatility could still shift the path. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15–16 FOMC decision will provide the next key inputs.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,339,082শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated but moderating inflation and a stable labor market underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, while residual energy-driven price pressures support the 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike.**
July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.5% in June), with core at 2.5%, as gasoline and other energy costs eased from their May peak amid the Middle East supply shock. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August with steady payroll gains, keeping the Fed’s dual mandate in relative balance. Policymakers under Chair Kevin Warsh have stressed returning inflation to 2%, and the July dot plot showed several participants favoring higher rates by year-end.
Traders appear to view the recent disinflation trend and solid growth as sufficient for the Committee to hold the 3.50–3.75% target range again in October, though upside inflation surprises or renewed energy volatility could still shift the path. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15–16 FOMC decision will provide the next key inputs.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$1,339,082শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated but moderating inflation and a stable labor market underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, while residual energy-driven price pressures support the 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.5% in June), with core at 2.5%, as gasoline and other energy costs eased from their May peak amid the Middle East supply shock. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August with steady payroll gains, keeping the Fed’s dual mandate in relative balance. Policymakers under Chair Kevin Warsh have stressed returning inflation to 2%, and the July dot plot showed several participants favoring higher rates by year-end. Traders appear to view the recent disinflation trend and solid growth as sufficient for the Committee to hold the 3.50–3.75% target range again in October, though upside inflation surprises or renewed energy volatility could still shift the path. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15–16 FOMC decision will provide the next key inputs.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা