Trump’s early 2026 threats to acquire Greenland through tariffs or unspecified means, including initial refusal to rule out military options, triggered NATO-wide alerts and Danish defensive measures, yet produced no U.S. invasion preparations or congressional authorization. By late January the administration publicly reversed course at Davos, explicitly rejecting force while pursuing negotiations, a shift reinforced by Senate resolutions requiring approval for any military action and the strategic impossibility of operations against a NATO territory without collapsing the alliance. Traders assign 96.7% probability to “No” because these institutional, alliance, and diplomatic barriers have held through mid-August with no escalatory signals. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential late-year shifts in Arctic security claims or unforeseen bilateral breakdowns, though both lack supporting developments.