Republican control of the House and consistent GOP opposition to restricting military aid form the core driver behind the 96.9% implied probability that no such bill will pass by September 30. Recent floor actions, including the July rejection of a Massie amendment to eliminate $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing and the September passage of pro-Israel measures on university boycotts, illustrate entrenched majorities favoring continued assistance under the expiring memorandum of understanding. With limited legislative days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled votes advancing restrictions, trader consensus reflects the procedural and partisan barriers. Late-session developments such as an acute escalation in regional conflict or unexpected bipartisan negotiations could still introduce volatility, though historical patterns show low likelihood of rapid reversal in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
是
3% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican control of the House and consistent GOP opposition to restricting military aid form the core driver behind the 96.9% implied probability that no such bill will pass by September 30. Recent floor actions, including the July rejection of a Massie amendment to eliminate $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing and the September passage of pro-Israel measures on university boycotts, illustrate entrenched majorities favoring continued assistance under the expiring memorandum of understanding. With limited legislative days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled votes advancing restrictions, trader consensus reflects the procedural and partisan barriers. Late-session developments such as an acute escalation in regional conflict or unexpected bipartisan negotiations could still introduce volatility, though historical patterns show low likelihood of rapid reversal in the current environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,972结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican control of the House and consistent GOP opposition to restricting military aid form the core driver behind the 96.9% implied probability that no such bill will pass by September 30. Recent floor actions, including the July rejection of a Massie amendment to eliminate $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing and the September passage of pro-Israel measures on university boycotts, illustrate entrenched majorities favoring continued assistance under the expiring memorandum of understanding. With limited legislative days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled votes advancing restrictions, trader consensus reflects the procedural and partisan barriers. Late-session developments such as an acute escalation in regional conflict or unexpected bipartisan negotiations could still introduce volatility, though historical patterns show low likelihood of rapid reversal in the current environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,972结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETRepublican control of the House and consistent GOP opposition to restricting military aid form the core driver behind the 96.9% implied probability that no such bill will pass by September 30. Recent floor actions, including the July rejection of a Massie amendment to eliminate $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing and the September passage of pro-Israel measures on university boycotts, illustrate entrenched majorities favoring continued assistance under the expiring memorandum of understanding. With limited legislative days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled votes advancing restrictions, trader consensus reflects the procedural and partisan barriers. Late-session developments such as an acute escalation in regional conflict or unexpected bipartisan negotiations could still introduce volatility, though historical patterns show low likelihood of rapid reversal in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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