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icon for 《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?

《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?

icon for 《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?

《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?

$17,718 交易量

2026-09-21
Polymarket

$17,718 交易量

Polymarket

9月13日

$13,361 交易量

1%

9月15日

$2,012 交易量

86%

9月17日

$425 交易量

96%

9月19日

$703 交易量

77%

9月21日

$1,217 交易量

100%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s domestic run has positioned it as the clear frontrunner to eclipse Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ long-standing $936.7 million record. The Tom Holland-Zendaya tentpole opened to an all-time best $360 million in late July and has maintained unusually strong legs through minimal late-summer competition, premium-format ticket sales, and robust audience retention. It already passed Avengers: Endgame domestically in just 25 days and crossed $900 million faster than any prior title except Force Awakens itself. With weekly grosses still in the mid-to-high single digits by early September and fall releases offering little direct threat, the film sits roughly $10–20 million short of the benchmark. Traders are pricing near-certain resolution in the coming weeks absent an abrupt collapse in holds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
交易量
$17,718
结束日期
2026-09-21
市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s domestic run has positioned it as the clear frontrunner to eclipse Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ long-standing $936.7 million record. The Tom Holland-Zendaya tentpole opened to an all-time best $360 million in late July and has maintained unusually strong legs through minimal late-summer competition, premium-format ticket sales, and robust audience retention. It already passed Avengers: Endgame domestically in just 25 days and crossed $900 million faster than any prior title except Force Awakens itself. With weekly grosses still in the mid-to-high single digits by early September and fall releases offering little direct threat, the film sits roughly $10–20 million short of the benchmark. Traders are pricing near-certain resolution in the coming weeks absent an abrupt collapse in holds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
交易量
$17,718
结束日期
2026-09-21
市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:40 PM ET

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常见问题

"《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"9月21日",概率为 100%,其次是"9月17日",概率为 96%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?"已产生 $17.7K 的总交易量(自Sep 8, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?"的当前领先者是"9月21日",概率为 100%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"9月17日",概率为 96%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"《蜘蛛侠:崭新的一天》会超越《星球大战:原力觉醒》吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。