Apple's ongoing lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) reflects acute supply pressure from AI-driven demand that has tripled memory costs and prompted recent product price hikes. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list over alleged PLA ties, creating significant regulatory uncertainty and political opposition in Congress that traders view as major barriers to any 2026 deal. Analysts note CXMT’s limited wafer capacity is already committed to domestic Chinese customers such as Huawei, with early Apple testing and talks focused mainly on China-market devices unlikely to scale quickly enough. These factors underpin the market’s 71.5% probability on “No,” as any resolution would require explicit White House assurances amid tightening U.S.-China tech controls.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
29% 概率
$19,379 交易量
$19,379 交易量
2026-12-31
是
29% 概率
$19,379 交易量
$19,379 交易量
2026-12-31
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) reflects acute supply pressure from AI-driven demand that has tripled memory costs and prompted recent product price hikes. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list over alleged PLA ties, creating significant regulatory uncertainty and political opposition in Congress that traders view as major barriers to any 2026 deal. Analysts note CXMT’s limited wafer capacity is already committed to domestic Chinese customers such as Huawei, with early Apple testing and talks focused mainly on China-market devices unlikely to scale quickly enough. These factors underpin the market’s 71.5% probability on “No,” as any resolution would require explicit White House assurances amid tightening U.S.-China tech controls.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
交易量
$19,379结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETAccording to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's ongoing lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) reflects acute supply pressure from AI-driven demand that has tripled memory costs and prompted recent product price hikes. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list over alleged PLA ties, creating significant regulatory uncertainty and political opposition in Congress that traders view as major barriers to any 2026 deal. Analysts note CXMT’s limited wafer capacity is already committed to domestic Chinese customers such as Huawei, with early Apple testing and talks focused mainly on China-market devices unlikely to scale quickly enough. These factors underpin the market’s 71.5% probability on “No,” as any resolution would require explicit White House assurances amid tightening U.S.-China tech controls.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$19,379结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETApple's ongoing lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) reflects acute supply pressure from AI-driven demand that has tripled memory costs and prompted recent product price hikes. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list over alleged PLA ties, creating significant regulatory uncertainty and political opposition in Congress that traders view as major barriers to any 2026 deal. Analysts note CXMT’s limited wafer capacity is already committed to domestic Chinese customers such as Huawei, with early Apple testing and talks focused mainly on China-market devices unlikely to scale quickly enough. These factors underpin the market’s 71.5% probability on “No,” as any resolution would require explicit White House assurances amid tightening U.S.-China tech controls.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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