Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has driven the 94.5% market-implied probability for "No," highlighting that Apple has deprioritized a next-generation Vision Pro successor—often described as a slimmer Vision Air model—due to persistent challenges in miniaturizing components, advancing display technology, and managing manufacturing costs. With the spatial computing category described as "on ice," resources have shifted toward AI smart glasses now targeted for late 2027, while an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro arrived in late 2025 without signaling a full redesign. Traders view an accelerated 2026 launch as unlikely given historical timelines and supply-chain realities, though an unexpected engineering breakthrough or strategic pivot could still alter the outlook before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has driven the 94.5% market-implied probability for "No," highlighting that Apple has deprioritized a next-generation Vision Pro successor—often described as a slimmer Vision Air model—due to persistent challenges in miniaturizing components, advancing display technology, and managing manufacturing costs. With the spatial computing category described as "on ice," resources have shifted toward AI smart glasses now targeted for late 2027, while an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro arrived in late 2025 without signaling a full redesign. Traders view an accelerated 2026 launch as unlikely given historical timelines and supply-chain realities, though an unexpected engineering breakthrough or strategic pivot could still alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,821结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has driven the 94.5% market-implied probability for "No," highlighting that Apple has deprioritized a next-generation Vision Pro successor—often described as a slimmer Vision Air model—due to persistent challenges in miniaturizing components, advancing display technology, and managing manufacturing costs. With the spatial computing category described as "on ice," resources have shifted toward AI smart glasses now targeted for late 2027, while an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro arrived in late 2025 without signaling a full redesign. Traders view an accelerated 2026 launch as unlikely given historical timelines and supply-chain realities, though an unexpected engineering breakthrough or strategic pivot could still alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$5,821结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has driven the 94.5% market-implied probability for "No," highlighting that Apple has deprioritized a next-generation Vision Pro successor—often described as a slimmer Vision Air model—due to persistent challenges in miniaturizing components, advancing display technology, and managing manufacturing costs. With the spatial computing category described as "on ice," resources have shifted toward AI smart glasses now targeted for late 2027, while an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro arrived in late 2025 without signaling a full redesign. Traders view an accelerated 2026 launch as unlikely given historical timelines and supply-chain realities, though an unexpected engineering breakthrough or strategic pivot could still alter the outlook before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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