Traders assign a 95.3% probability against any new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active, near-term normalization talks that could produce a signed agreement in the remaining weeks. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 marked the most recent expansion, while potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition recognition on progress toward a Palestinian state, Syria has signaled it will not proceed amid ongoing border tensions, and other prospects including Lebanon or additional Central Asian states remain at early or stalled stages. Diplomatic processes typically require months of negotiations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies, making a rapid breakthrough before month-end unlikely under current conditions. Late developments, such as an unexpected bilateral deal with a country already maintaining quiet ties to Israel or a sudden shift tied to regional diplomacy, could still alter the outcome before the resolution window closes.