Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$304,963 交易量
2026-12-31
Steve Witkoff
43%
贾里德·库什纳
42%
穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫
42%
阿巴斯·阿拉格齐
34%
伊沙克·达尔
31%
J.D. 万斯
31%
卡泽姆·加里巴巴迪
24%
尼克·斯图尔特
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
巴德尔·本·哈马德·阿尔布赛义迪
17%
拉斐尔·格罗西
17%
唐纳德·特朗普
14%
穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼
14%
马可·鲁比奥
13%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
13%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
11%
彼特·赫格塞思
9%
埃斯梅尔·卡阿尼
7%
穆吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
5%
$304,963 交易量
Steve Witkoff
$17,730 交易量
43%
贾里德·库什纳
$14,387 交易量
42%
穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$11,943 交易量
42%
阿巴斯·阿拉格齐
$7,573 交易量
34%
伊沙克·达尔
$17,540 交易量
31%
J.D. 万斯
$20,976 交易量
31%
卡泽姆·加里巴巴迪
$16,478 交易量
24%
尼克·斯图尔特
$11,128 交易量
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,946 交易量
18%
巴德尔·本·哈马德·阿尔布赛义迪
$29,145 交易量
17%
拉斐尔·格罗西
$18,288 交易量
17%
唐纳德·特朗普
$7,456 交易量
14%
穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼
$28,743 交易量
14%
马可·鲁比奥
$13,311 交易量
13%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$19,279 交易量
13%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$7,856 交易量
11%
彼特·赫格塞思
$15,413 交易量
9%
埃斯梅尔·卡阿尼
$10,890 交易量
7%
穆吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$19,880 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
交易量
$304,963结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$304,963结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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