Elevated jet fuel prices, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and up roughly 70-80% year-over-year, represent the dominant pressure on airline margins through year-end 2026. Spirit Airlines' May 2026 liquidation after multiple Chapter 11 filings underscores the vulnerability of ultra-low-cost carriers with thin unit economics and high leverage. JetBlue and Frontier carry the highest near-term distress risk per recent analyst assessments, while Allegiant faces moderate exposure; legacy carriers such as American, Delta, and United report substantial liquidity above $10 billion, unencumbered assets, and manageable net leverage despite reduced earnings guidance. Key upcoming catalysts include third-quarter fuel cost realizations, holiday demand trends, and any further debt maturities or financing activity.