Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces negligible risk of arrest by year-end, as reflected in the market's 95% "No" probability. No credible reports, investigations, or public incidents link her to criminal activity, legal disputes, or regulatory scrutiny through mid-2026. Her low profile centers on private education and limited philanthropy rather than high-visibility tech ventures or controversies that could trigger enforcement actions. Traders price in the absence of any catalysts like lawsuits, scandals, or compliance issues that have historically preceded arrests for similar private individuals. While unexpected personal events or mistaken identity remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting evidence and would require rapid, verifiable developments to shift consensus before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces negligible risk of arrest by year-end, as reflected in the market's 95% "No" probability. No credible reports, investigations, or public incidents link her to criminal activity, legal disputes, or regulatory scrutiny through mid-2026. Her low profile centers on private education and limited philanthropy rather than high-visibility tech ventures or controversies that could trigger enforcement actions. Traders price in the absence of any catalysts like lawsuits, scandals, or compliance issues that have historically preceded arrests for similar private individuals. While unexpected personal events or mistaken identity remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting evidence and would require rapid, verifiable developments to shift consensus before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$21结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces negligible risk of arrest by year-end, as reflected in the market's 95% "No" probability. No credible reports, investigations, or public incidents link her to criminal activity, legal disputes, or regulatory scrutiny through mid-2026. Her low profile centers on private education and limited philanthropy rather than high-visibility tech ventures or controversies that could trigger enforcement actions. Traders price in the absence of any catalysts like lawsuits, scandals, or compliance issues that have historically preceded arrests for similar private individuals. While unexpected personal events or mistaken identity remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting evidence and would require rapid, verifiable developments to shift consensus before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$21结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces negligible risk of arrest by year-end, as reflected in the market's 95% "No" probability. No credible reports, investigations, or public incidents link her to criminal activity, legal disputes, or regulatory scrutiny through mid-2026. Her low profile centers on private education and limited philanthropy rather than high-visibility tech ventures or controversies that could trigger enforcement actions. Traders price in the absence of any catalysts like lawsuits, scandals, or compliance issues that have historically preceded arrests for similar private individuals. While unexpected personal events or mistaken identity remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting evidence and would require rapid, verifiable developments to shift consensus before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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