Pete Hegseth remains the sitting secretary of defense, with recent Senate testimony on supplemental funding for operations tied to Iran, ongoing budget requests exceeding $1 trillion annually, and public appearances alongside President Trump confirming his active role through July 2026. This continuity, backed by administration support and absence of confirmation fights or resignation signals, underpins trader consensus that removal before August 31 is highly unlikely. Late-breaking developments such as a major ethics scandal, sudden health event, or sharp policy rupture with the White House could still shift the outcome within the narrow window.