In Louisiana’s November 3 general election for the U.S. Senate, Republican nominee Julia Letlow faces Democrat Jamie Davis in a contest rated safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus clusters tightly on total ballots between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, reflecting uncertainty over how much the low-turnout June party runoffs (roughly 513,000 votes statewide) will translate into broader November participation. Key variables include Republican mobilization efforts around Letlow’s Trump endorsement, Democratic outreach in a state where registered partisans are nearly even, early and absentee voting trends, and typical factors such as weather or local campaign intensity. Developments that could shift probabilities include sustained early-vote surges, major get-out-the-vote pushes by either party, or updated voter registration and turnout modeling closer to Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于140万-150万 44%
150万-160万 37.1%
130万-140万 14.2%
160万-170万 5.5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于110万
3%
110万-120万
4%
120万-130万
6%
130万-140万
14%
140万-150万
44%
150万-160万
37%
160万-170万
6%
170万+
5%
140万-150万 44%
150万-160万 37.1%
130万-140万 14.2%
160万-170万 5.5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于110万
$197 交易量
3%
110万-120万
$1,110 交易量
4%
120万-130万
$3,699 交易量
6%
130万-140万
$683 交易量
14%
140万-150万
$1,225 交易量
44%
150万-160万
$2,015 交易量
37%
160万-170万
$447 交易量
6%
170万+
$305 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Louisiana’s November 3 general election for the U.S. Senate, Republican nominee Julia Letlow faces Democrat Jamie Davis in a contest rated safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus clusters tightly on total ballots between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, reflecting uncertainty over how much the low-turnout June party runoffs (roughly 513,000 votes statewide) will translate into broader November participation. Key variables include Republican mobilization efforts around Letlow’s Trump endorsement, Democratic outreach in a state where registered partisans are nearly even, early and absentee voting trends, and typical factors such as weather or local campaign intensity. Developments that could shift probabilities include sustained early-vote surges, major get-out-the-vote pushes by either party, or updated voter registration and turnout modeling closer to Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
交易量
$9,682结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Louisiana’s November 3 general election for the U.S. Senate, Republican nominee Julia Letlow faces Democrat Jamie Davis in a contest rated safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus clusters tightly on total ballots between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, reflecting uncertainty over how much the low-turnout June party runoffs (roughly 513,000 votes statewide) will translate into broader November participation. Key variables include Republican mobilization efforts around Letlow’s Trump endorsement, Democratic outreach in a state where registered partisans are nearly even, early and absentee voting trends, and typical factors such as weather or local campaign intensity. Developments that could shift probabilities include sustained early-vote surges, major get-out-the-vote pushes by either party, or updated voter registration and turnout modeling closer to Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$9,682结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETIn Louisiana’s November 3 general election for the U.S. Senate, Republican nominee Julia Letlow faces Democrat Jamie Davis in a contest rated safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus clusters tightly on total ballots between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, reflecting uncertainty over how much the low-turnout June party runoffs (roughly 513,000 votes statewide) will translate into broader November participation. Key variables include Republican mobilization efforts around Letlow’s Trump endorsement, Democratic outreach in a state where registered partisans are nearly even, early and absentee voting trends, and typical factors such as weather or local campaign intensity. Developments that could shift probabilities include sustained early-vote surges, major get-out-the-vote pushes by either party, or updated voter registration and turnout modeling closer to Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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