Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% amid the Bank of Japan’s accelerated policy normalization, with the policy rate already at 1% following the June 2026 hike and markets assigning high probability to a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 17–18 meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, a weaker yen, and August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year—have reinforced trader expectations for sustained higher short-term rates that anchor longer-term yields. Record fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add to supply concerns, while the BOJ’s reduced JGB purchases remove prior yield support. These dynamics underpin the 65.8% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at end-2026, reflecting the path of gradual but firm tightening toward the 2% inflation target.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.0%+ 65.8%
2.8-3.0% 12.2%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.8%
$29,237 交易量
$29,237 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
5%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
12%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 65.8%
2.8-3.0% 12.2%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.8%
$29,237 交易量
$29,237 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
$1,360 交易量
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 交易量
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 交易量
5%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 交易量
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 交易量
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 交易量
12%
3.0%+
$11,149 交易量
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% amid the Bank of Japan’s accelerated policy normalization, with the policy rate already at 1% following the June 2026 hike and markets assigning high probability to a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 17–18 meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, a weaker yen, and August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year—have reinforced trader expectations for sustained higher short-term rates that anchor longer-term yields. Record fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add to supply concerns, while the BOJ’s reduced JGB purchases remove prior yield support. These dynamics underpin the 65.8% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at end-2026, reflecting the path of gradual but firm tightening toward the 2% inflation target.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
市场开放时间： Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$29,237结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% amid the Bank of Japan’s accelerated policy normalization, with the policy rate already at 1% following the June 2026 hike and markets assigning high probability to a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 17–18 meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, a weaker yen, and August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year—have reinforced trader expectations for sustained higher short-term rates that anchor longer-term yields. Record fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add to supply concerns, while the BOJ’s reduced JGB purchases remove prior yield support. These dynamics underpin the 65.8% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at end-2026, reflecting the path of gradual but firm tightening toward the 2% inflation target.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
交易量
$29,237结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETJapan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% amid the Bank of Japan’s accelerated policy normalization, with the policy rate already at 1% following the June 2026 hike and markets assigning high probability to a further 25-basis-point increase at the September 17–18 meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, a weaker yen, and August producer prices rising 7.6% year-over-year—have reinforced trader expectations for sustained higher short-term rates that anchor longer-term yields. Record fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add to supply concerns, while the BOJ’s reduced JGB purchases remove prior yield support. These dynamics underpin the 65.8% market-implied probability for a 3.0%+ close at end-2026, reflecting the path of gradual but firm tightening toward the 2% inflation target.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题