Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 82.3%
没有国家元首 4.4%
礼萨·巴列维 3.2%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 1.7%
$38,822,202 交易量
$38,822,202 交易量
2026-12-30
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
82%
没有国家元首
4%
礼萨·巴列维
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
2%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
1%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
1%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
<1%
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 82.3%
没有国家元首 4.4%
礼萨·巴列维 3.2%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 1.7%
$38,822,202 交易量
$38,822,202 交易量
2026-12-30
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$6,153,852 交易量
82%
没有国家元首
$1,151,070 交易量
4%
礼萨·巴列维
$675,483 交易量
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$2,313,677 交易量
2%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
$1,124,955 交易量
1%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
$944,950 交易量
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$778,173 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$1,432,610 交易量
1%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$1,020,448 交易量
1%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$919,323 交易量
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$833,743 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
$438,358 交易量
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
$541,190 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
$3,148,205 交易量
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
$807,276 交易量
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
$399,822 交易量
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
$3,694,879 交易量
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
$147,449 交易量
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
$215,035 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$201,356 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$837,355 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
$436,805 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
$3,351,552 交易量
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
$241,120 交易量
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
$389,903 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$5,193,812 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$286,913 交易量
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
$254,952 交易量
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
$306,911 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
$344,166 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$38,822,202结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$38,822,202结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's position as Iran's Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins the dominant market consensus. The IRGC's reported role in securing his elevation amid wartime leadership losses and external threats, combined with his family ties and familiarity with security structures, has consolidated support despite his lack of prior public office or formal religious credentials matching historical precedents. Persistent rumors of severe injuries from the same strikes, his complete absence from public view through mid-2026, and limited communications via statements have introduced uncertainty around his capacity to govern, yet official affirmations of his involvement and health have contained challenges from alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Trader pricing reflects continuity under current institutional dynamics while acknowledging risks from ongoing conflict or internal power shifts by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题