Two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas to Ken Paxton and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—have already established two Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, with trader pricing reflecting expectations of one additional upset among the roughly 20 GOP-held seats contested in 2026. Primary challenges from more conservative candidates, supported by Trump endorsements and party base mobilization, have driven these outcomes, as seen in Texas where Paxton advanced after a competitive first round and runoff. Retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis and Joni Ernst have reduced the pool of incumbents facing voters, while remaining contests feature limited polling showing most officeholders holding comfortable leads absent major late developments. The 79% consensus on three total losses aligns with historical primary volatility patterns and the current slate of filing deadlines and upcoming August votes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3 79.0%
4 12.4%
2 6.9%
>4 4.3%
$54,670 交易量
$54,670 交易量
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
7%
3
79%
4
12%
>4
4%
3 79.0%
4 12.4%
2 6.9%
>4 4.3%
$54,670 交易量
$54,670 交易量
0
$4,221 交易量
<1%
1
$3,323 交易量
<1%
2
$30,714 交易量
7%
3
$7,871 交易量
79%
4
$4,541 交易量
12%
>4
$4,000 交易量
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas to Ken Paxton and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—have already established two Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, with trader pricing reflecting expectations of one additional upset among the roughly 20 GOP-held seats contested in 2026. Primary challenges from more conservative candidates, supported by Trump endorsements and party base mobilization, have driven these outcomes, as seen in Texas where Paxton advanced after a competitive first round and runoff. Retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis and Joni Ernst have reduced the pool of incumbents facing voters, while remaining contests feature limited polling showing most officeholders holding comfortable leads absent major late developments. The 79% consensus on three total losses aligns with historical primary volatility patterns and the current slate of filing deadlines and upcoming August votes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
交易量
$54,670市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas to Ken Paxton and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—have already established two Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, with trader pricing reflecting expectations of one additional upset among the roughly 20 GOP-held seats contested in 2026. Primary challenges from more conservative candidates, supported by Trump endorsements and party base mobilization, have driven these outcomes, as seen in Texas where Paxton advanced after a competitive first round and runoff. Retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis and Joni Ernst have reduced the pool of incumbents facing voters, while remaining contests feature limited polling showing most officeholders holding comfortable leads absent major late developments. The 79% consensus on three total losses aligns with historical primary volatility patterns and the current slate of filing deadlines and upcoming August votes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$54,670市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Two confirmed primary defeats—John Cornyn in Texas to Ken Paxton and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—have already established two Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, with trader pricing reflecting expectations of one additional upset among the roughly 20 GOP-held seats contested in 2026. Primary challenges from more conservative candidates, supported by Trump endorsements and party base mobilization, have driven these outcomes, as seen in Texas where Paxton advanced after a competitive first round and runoff. Retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis and Joni Ernst have reduced the pool of incumbents facing voters, while remaining contests feature limited polling showing most officeholders holding comfortable leads absent major late developments. The 79% consensus on three total losses aligns with historical primary volatility patterns and the current slate of filing deadlines and upcoming August votes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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