Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28, 2026, with all recent military and diplomatic activity centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation rules, transit corridors, and potential fees rather than any shift in territorial ownership. As of late August 2026, Iran and Oman have advanced talks on a temporary joint navigational corridor and mine-clearing, yet Iranian officials explicitly state the strait remains militarily closed under Tehran's administration, with IRGC forces enforcing passage protocols. US responses have included strikes on coastal and island military sites plus blockade measures, but no ground operations or occupation have altered Iranian authority on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the absence of developments that would meet resolution criteria of another state or force assuming primary governmental or military authority. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups over the next 30-60 days focus on route administration, not sovereignty changes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$64,015 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
$64,015 交易量
8月31日
$52,278 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28, 2026, with all recent military and diplomatic activity centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation rules, transit corridors, and potential fees rather than any shift in territorial ownership. As of late August 2026, Iran and Oman have advanced talks on a temporary joint navigational corridor and mine-clearing, yet Iranian officials explicitly state the strait remains militarily closed under Tehran's administration, with IRGC forces enforcing passage protocols. US responses have included strikes on coastal and island military sites plus blockade measures, but no ground operations or occupation have altered Iranian authority on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the absence of developments that would meet resolution criteria of another state or force assuming primary governmental or military authority. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups over the next 30-60 days focus on route administration, not sovereignty changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
交易量
$64,015结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28, 2026, with all recent military and diplomatic activity centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation rules, transit corridors, and potential fees rather than any shift in territorial ownership. As of late August 2026, Iran and Oman have advanced talks on a temporary joint navigational corridor and mine-clearing, yet Iranian officials explicitly state the strait remains militarily closed under Tehran's administration, with IRGC forces enforcing passage protocols. US responses have included strikes on coastal and island military sites plus blockade measures, but no ground operations or occupation have altered Iranian authority on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the absence of developments that would meet resolution criteria of another state or force assuming primary governmental or military authority. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups over the next 30-60 days focus on route administration, not sovereignty changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$64,015结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28, 2026, with all recent military and diplomatic activity centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation rules, transit corridors, and potential fees rather than any shift in territorial ownership. As of late August 2026, Iran and Oman have advanced talks on a temporary joint navigational corridor and mine-clearing, yet Iranian officials explicitly state the strait remains militarily closed under Tehran's administration, with IRGC forces enforcing passage protocols. US responses have included strikes on coastal and island military sites plus blockade measures, but no ground operations or occupation have altered Iranian authority on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the absence of developments that would meet resolution criteria of another state or force assuming primary governmental or military authority. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups over the next 30-60 days focus on route administration, not sovereignty changes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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