Recent App Store data shows TikTok Pro - Events and ChatGPT trading the top two free spots daily, with the former benefiting from its June 2026 launch as a dedicated platform for cultural events like the FIFA World Cup, complete with challenges and fan features that boosted downloads. ChatGPT maintains steady leadership through ongoing large language model improvements and broad productivity use, while resale apps like Depop and Vinted ride seasonal shopping trends. With outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability, trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty around short-term download surges from updates, social media campaigns, or viral moments in the final days before July 31. Key swing factors include any late-July promotions or competing releases from AI chatbots like Claude and Gemini or social platforms like Threads.