**US-Iran tensions center on control of the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and sanctions rather than ground operations.** Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and renewed shipping attacks, the Trump administration has emphasized “economic D-Day” measures, expanded sanctions, and airstrikes to enforce compliance, with no announced plans for large-scale troop deployments. Ongoing diplomatic backchannels, Iranian internal divisions over concessions, and the high costs of occupation have reinforced trader views that military strategy will remain limited to air, naval, and financial tools through the end of 2026. Scheduled talks and regional mediation efforts further support the current 83.5% implied probability against invasion before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
17% 機率
$59,676,493 交易量
$59,676,493 交易量
2026-12-30
是
17% 機率
$59,676,493 交易量
$59,676,493 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**US-Iran tensions center on control of the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and sanctions rather than ground operations.** Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and renewed shipping attacks, the Trump administration has emphasized “economic D-Day” measures, expanded sanctions, and airstrikes to enforce compliance, with no announced plans for large-scale troop deployments. Ongoing diplomatic backchannels, Iranian internal divisions over concessions, and the high costs of occupation have reinforced trader views that military strategy will remain limited to air, naval, and financial tools through the end of 2026. Scheduled talks and regional mediation efforts further support the current 83.5% implied probability against invasion before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$59,676,493結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**US-Iran tensions center on control of the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and sanctions rather than ground operations.** Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and renewed shipping attacks, the Trump administration has emphasized “economic D-Day” measures, expanded sanctions, and airstrikes to enforce compliance, with no announced plans for large-scale troop deployments. Ongoing diplomatic backchannels, Iranian internal divisions over concessions, and the high costs of occupation have reinforced trader views that military strategy will remain limited to air, naval, and financial tools through the end of 2026. Scheduled talks and regional mediation efforts further support the current 83.5% implied probability against invasion before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$59,676,493結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-Iran tensions center on control of the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and sanctions rather than ground operations.** Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and renewed shipping attacks, the Trump administration has emphasized “economic D-Day” measures, expanded sanctions, and airstrikes to enforce compliance, with no announced plans for large-scale troop deployments. Ongoing diplomatic backchannels, Iranian internal divisions over concessions, and the high costs of occupation have reinforced trader views that military strategy will remain limited to air, naval, and financial tools through the end of 2026. Scheduled talks and regional mediation efforts further support the current 83.5% implied probability against invasion before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
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