Ongoing tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy, with the 60-day negotiation window for a comprehensive framework—including nuclear restrictions, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and UN Security Council endorsement—ending without agreement. Renewed clashes over maritime routes, Iranian assertions of control in the Gulf, U.S. naval responses, and the loss of IAEA continuity at Iranian nuclear sites since earlier strikes have heightened distrust and complicated verification requirements. Official statements from both sides indicate no active formal talks as of mid-August, amid persistent disputes over ballistic missiles, enrichment levels, and implementation timelines that previously derailed similar efforts. These factors have shaped trader consensus that a finalized deal meeting all conditions for UNSC resolution by year-end remains improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
14% 機率
$173,460 交易量
$173,460 交易量
2026-12-30
是
14% 機率
$173,460 交易量
$173,460 交易量
2026-12-30
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy, with the 60-day negotiation window for a comprehensive framework—including nuclear restrictions, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and UN Security Council endorsement—ending without agreement. Renewed clashes over maritime routes, Iranian assertions of control in the Gulf, U.S. naval responses, and the loss of IAEA continuity at Iranian nuclear sites since earlier strikes have heightened distrust and complicated verification requirements. Official statements from both sides indicate no active formal talks as of mid-August, amid persistent disputes over ballistic missiles, enrichment levels, and implementation timelines that previously derailed similar efforts. These factors have shaped trader consensus that a finalized deal meeting all conditions for UNSC resolution by year-end remains improbable.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
交易量
$173,460結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy, with the 60-day negotiation window for a comprehensive framework—including nuclear restrictions, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and UN Security Council endorsement—ending without agreement. Renewed clashes over maritime routes, Iranian assertions of control in the Gulf, U.S. naval responses, and the loss of IAEA continuity at Iranian nuclear sites since earlier strikes have heightened distrust and complicated verification requirements. Official statements from both sides indicate no active formal talks as of mid-August, amid persistent disputes over ballistic missiles, enrichment levels, and implementation timelines that previously derailed similar efforts. These factors have shaped trader consensus that a finalized deal meeting all conditions for UNSC resolution by year-end remains improbable.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$173,460結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum have stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy, with the 60-day negotiation window for a comprehensive framework—including nuclear restrictions, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and UN Security Council endorsement—ending without agreement. Renewed clashes over maritime routes, Iranian assertions of control in the Gulf, U.S. naval responses, and the loss of IAEA continuity at Iranian nuclear sites since earlier strikes have heightened distrust and complicated verification requirements. Official statements from both sides indicate no active formal talks as of mid-August, amid persistent disputes over ballistic missiles, enrichment levels, and implementation timelines that previously derailed similar efforts. These factors have shaped trader consensus that a finalized deal meeting all conditions for UNSC resolution by year-end remains improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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