Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts in northern Sumy Oblast near Kindrativka throughout 2025–2026, with periodic claims of incremental gains offset by Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes that have disrupted advances. Independent assessments from ISW and DeepState indicate no confirmed Russian capture of key positions in the village as of mid-August 2026, reflecting the grinding pace of fighting along the border and Ukrainian efforts to hold defensive lines. Trader consensus, reflected in current market pricing around 26% for capture by September 30, 2026, aligns with these battlefield reports amid broader Russian summer gains elsewhere in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia but slower progress in the Sumy sector. Upcoming developments such as intensified Russian assaults or Ukrainian reinforcements could shift positioning before any resolution deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$64,711 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
25%
$64,711 交易量
9月30日
$19,696 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts in northern Sumy Oblast near Kindrativka throughout 2025–2026, with periodic claims of incremental gains offset by Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes that have disrupted advances. Independent assessments from ISW and DeepState indicate no confirmed Russian capture of key positions in the village as of mid-August 2026, reflecting the grinding pace of fighting along the border and Ukrainian efforts to hold defensive lines. Trader consensus, reflected in current market pricing around 26% for capture by September 30, 2026, aligns with these battlefield reports amid broader Russian summer gains elsewhere in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia but slower progress in the Sumy sector. Upcoming developments such as intensified Russian assaults or Ukrainian reinforcements could shift positioning before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 24, 2026, 10:04 PM ET
交易量
$64,711結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 10:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts in northern Sumy Oblast near Kindrativka throughout 2025–2026, with periodic claims of incremental gains offset by Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes that have disrupted advances. Independent assessments from ISW and DeepState indicate no confirmed Russian capture of key positions in the village as of mid-August 2026, reflecting the grinding pace of fighting along the border and Ukrainian efforts to hold defensive lines. Trader consensus, reflected in current market pricing around 26% for capture by September 30, 2026, aligns with these battlefield reports amid broader Russian summer gains elsewhere in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia but slower progress in the Sumy sector. Upcoming developments such as intensified Russian assaults or Ukrainian reinforcements could shift positioning before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
交易量
$64,711結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 10:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts in northern Sumy Oblast near Kindrativka throughout 2025–2026, with periodic claims of incremental gains offset by Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes that have disrupted advances. Independent assessments from ISW and DeepState indicate no confirmed Russian capture of key positions in the village as of mid-August 2026, reflecting the grinding pace of fighting along the border and Ukrainian efforts to hold defensive lines. Trader consensus, reflected in current market pricing around 26% for capture by September 30, 2026, aligns with these battlefield reports amid broader Russian summer gains elsewhere in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia but slower progress in the Sumy sector. Upcoming developments such as intensified Russian assaults or Ukrainian reinforcements could shift positioning before any resolution deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions