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icon for 美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？
政治·巴西

美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？

icon for 美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？
政治·巴西

美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？

是

6% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

6% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated in early August 2026 when the State Department revoked the visa of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti over Brazil’s delays in approving President Trump’s nominee and its denial of visas to two US diplomats. Officials immediately clarified that the move was a reversible, reciprocal action—not an expulsion—and that Viotti could remain in the United States, with her visa restored upon Brazilian approval of the US envoy. No subsequent statements or actions from either government have signaled plans for formal expulsion of any Brazilian diplomat before the September 30 deadline. The calibrated response aligns with ongoing trade disputes and Brazil’s October elections, reinforcing trader expectations that the dispute will stay below the threshold of expulsion.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,807
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated in early August 2026 when the State Department revoked the visa of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti over Brazil’s delays in approving President Trump’s nominee and its denial of visas to two US diplomats. Officials immediately clarified that the move was a reversible, reciprocal action—not an expulsion—and that Viotti could remain in the United States, with her visa restored upon Brazilian approval of the US envoy. No subsequent statements or actions from either government have signaled plans for formal expulsion of any Brazilian diplomat before the September 30 deadline. The calibrated response aligns with ongoing trade disputes and Brazil’s October elections, reinforcing trader expectations that the dispute will stay below the threshold of expulsion.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,807
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國是否會在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" is "美國是否會在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.