The survival of Iran's Islamic Republic after earlier 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not lead the country in 2026. The exiled opposition figure's transition framework gained visibility during protests and conflict but encountered limited US endorsement under the Trump administration, donor fatigue, and persistent divisions among Iranian opposition groups. Pahlavi remains outside the country without institutional or security forces backing inside Iran, while recent polling indicates divided domestic views and regime institutions have stabilized under new leadership. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden nationwide uprising enabling his transitional role or major foreign policy reversals, though such developments face steep structural barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$11,708,756 交易量
$11,708,756 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 機率
$11,708,756 交易量
$11,708,756 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The survival of Iran's Islamic Republic after earlier 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not lead the country in 2026. The exiled opposition figure's transition framework gained visibility during protests and conflict but encountered limited US endorsement under the Trump administration, donor fatigue, and persistent divisions among Iranian opposition groups. Pahlavi remains outside the country without institutional or security forces backing inside Iran, while recent polling indicates divided domestic views and regime institutions have stabilized under new leadership. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden nationwide uprising enabling his transitional role or major foreign policy reversals, though such developments face steep structural barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$11,708,756結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The survival of Iran's Islamic Republic after earlier 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not lead the country in 2026. The exiled opposition figure's transition framework gained visibility during protests and conflict but encountered limited US endorsement under the Trump administration, donor fatigue, and persistent divisions among Iranian opposition groups. Pahlavi remains outside the country without institutional or security forces backing inside Iran, while recent polling indicates divided domestic views and regime institutions have stabilized under new leadership. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden nationwide uprising enabling his transitional role or major foreign policy reversals, though such developments face steep structural barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$11,708,756結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The survival of Iran's Islamic Republic after earlier 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not lead the country in 2026. The exiled opposition figure's transition framework gained visibility during protests and conflict but encountered limited US endorsement under the Trump administration, donor fatigue, and persistent divisions among Iranian opposition groups. Pahlavi remains outside the country without institutional or security forces backing inside Iran, while recent polling indicates divided domestic views and regime institutions have stabilized under new leadership. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden nationwide uprising enabling his transitional role or major foreign policy reversals, though such developments face steep structural barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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