Traders assign a 98.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical preparations required for such an operation. The most recent development, two days of Chinese live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait near Fujian in late July 2026, followed the pattern of routine coercive exercises seen in prior blockade simulations without crossing into offensive staging. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 noted no fixed timeline for unification and highlighted internal PLA leadership disruptions that reduced near-term invasion readiness. With only two months remaining, the compressed window further reinforces consensus against an imminent campaign. A sudden shift in Beijing’s posture or unanticipated diplomatic breakdown could still alter trajectories, though no such indicators have emerged.