**KRG leaders have shown no intent to pursue a formal independence declaration by December 31, 2026, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 94%.** Internal political deadlock between the KDP and PUK has delayed cabinet formation since the October 2024 regional elections, while fiscal disputes with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, salary payments, and customs collection remain the dominant priorities. Recent agreements, including the September 2025 deal resuming oil exports under federal oversight, have reinforced integration rather than separation. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and other officials have repeatedly emphasized neutrality amid regional conflicts, including US-Iran tensions that produced strikes on Kurdish territory, and have described foreign policy as the responsibility of the Iraqi central government. The 2017 referendum’s reversal—marked by territorial losses, court rulings, and international opposition—continues to shape caution, with no comparable campaign or statements emerging in 2025–2026. Regional actors including Turkey and Iran, alongside Baghdad, maintain longstanding opposition to unilateral secession, while KRG focus stays on budget stability and avoiding escalation. Absent a sudden shift in these fundamentals before year-end, trader consensus aligns with continued autonomy within Iraq’s federal structure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$272,582 交易量
$272,582 交易量
2026-12-30
是
6% 機率
$272,582 交易量
$272,582 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**KRG leaders have shown no intent to pursue a formal independence declaration by December 31, 2026, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 94%.** Internal political deadlock between the KDP and PUK has delayed cabinet formation since the October 2024 regional elections, while fiscal disputes with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, salary payments, and customs collection remain the dominant priorities. Recent agreements, including the September 2025 deal resuming oil exports under federal oversight, have reinforced integration rather than separation.
KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and other officials have repeatedly emphasized neutrality amid regional conflicts, including US-Iran tensions that produced strikes on Kurdish territory, and have described foreign policy as the responsibility of the Iraqi central government. The 2017 referendum’s reversal—marked by territorial losses, court rulings, and international opposition—continues to shape caution, with no comparable campaign or statements emerging in 2025–2026. Regional actors including Turkey and Iran, alongside Baghdad, maintain longstanding opposition to unilateral secession, while KRG focus stays on budget stability and avoiding escalation. Absent a sudden shift in these fundamentals before year-end, trader consensus aligns with continued autonomy within Iraq’s federal structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$272,582結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**KRG leaders have shown no intent to pursue a formal independence declaration by December 31, 2026, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 94%.** Internal political deadlock between the KDP and PUK has delayed cabinet formation since the October 2024 regional elections, while fiscal disputes with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, salary payments, and customs collection remain the dominant priorities. Recent agreements, including the September 2025 deal resuming oil exports under federal oversight, have reinforced integration rather than separation.
KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and other officials have repeatedly emphasized neutrality amid regional conflicts, including US-Iran tensions that produced strikes on Kurdish territory, and have described foreign policy as the responsibility of the Iraqi central government. The 2017 referendum’s reversal—marked by territorial losses, court rulings, and international opposition—continues to shape caution, with no comparable campaign or statements emerging in 2025–2026. Regional actors including Turkey and Iran, alongside Baghdad, maintain longstanding opposition to unilateral secession, while KRG focus stays on budget stability and avoiding escalation. Absent a sudden shift in these fundamentals before year-end, trader consensus aligns with continued autonomy within Iraq’s federal structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$272,582結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**KRG leaders have shown no intent to pursue a formal independence declaration by December 31, 2026, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 94%.** Internal political deadlock between the KDP and PUK has delayed cabinet formation since the October 2024 regional elections, while fiscal disputes with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, salary payments, and customs collection remain the dominant priorities. Recent agreements, including the September 2025 deal resuming oil exports under federal oversight, have reinforced integration rather than separation. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and other officials have repeatedly emphasized neutrality amid regional conflicts, including US-Iran tensions that produced strikes on Kurdish territory, and have described foreign policy as the responsibility of the Iraqi central government. The 2017 referendum’s reversal—marked by territorial losses, court rulings, and international opposition—continues to shape caution, with no comparable campaign or statements emerging in 2025–2026. Regional actors including Turkey and Iran, alongside Baghdad, maintain longstanding opposition to unilateral secession, while KRG focus stays on budget stability and avoiding escalation. Absent a sudden shift in these fundamentals before year-end, trader consensus aligns with continued autonomy within Iraq’s federal structure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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