Jannik Sinner enters the 2026 US Open as the clear men's favorite on hard courts after strong recent Masters results, while Aryna Sabalenka aims for a third straight women's title amid a competitive field. Carlos Alcaraz's recent withdrawal from Cincinnati due to injury has shifted momentum toward Sinner and raised questions about the defending champion's readiness for the late-August schedule at Flushing Meadows. Key variables include official entry lists confirming top seeds, injury updates such as Emma Raducanu's stress fracture ruling her out, and historical hard-court trends favoring consistent performers like Sinner and Sabalenka. Recent form, rest advantages heading into the final Grand Slam, and potential late withdrawals will shape semifinal and final matchups in the coming weeks.