Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-based outlooks, point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and northeasterly winds for Madrid on September 10, producing minimum temperatures near 12–15°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome at 56.5% implied probability, as high-pressure patterns and low humidity enhance heat loss after daytime highs around 27–28°C. A competing warm-air advection scenario supports the 21°C-or-higher market at 43.5%, reflecting model spread on wind shifts or cloud cover that could limit cooling. These probabilities capture genuine short-term forecast uncertainty two days out, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum from official stations; historical early-September lows average near 16°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月10日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月10日馬德裏最低氣溫？
21°C或以上 94%
11°C或以下 69%
12°C 21%
17°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-10
11°C或以下
69%
12°C
21%
13°C
10%
14°C
9%
15°C
9%
16°C
8%
17°C
16%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
16%
21°C或以上
94%
21°C或以上 94%
11°C或以下 69%
12°C 21%
17°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-10
11°C或以下
$0 交易量
69%
12°C
$0 交易量
21%
13°C
$0 交易量
10%
14°C
$0 交易量
9%
15°C
$0 交易量
9%
16°C
$0 交易量
8%
17°C
$25 交易量
16%
18°C
$25 交易量
1%
19°C
$25 交易量
1%
20°C
$25 交易量
16%
21°C或以上
$30 交易量
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-based outlooks, point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and northeasterly winds for Madrid on September 10, producing minimum temperatures near 12–15°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome at 56.5% implied probability, as high-pressure patterns and low humidity enhance heat loss after daytime highs around 27–28°C. A competing warm-air advection scenario supports the 21°C-or-higher market at 43.5%, reflecting model spread on wind shifts or cloud cover that could limit cooling. These probabilities capture genuine short-term forecast uncertainty two days out, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum from official stations; historical early-September lows average near 16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$130結束日期
2026-09-10市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-based outlooks, point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and northeasterly winds for Madrid on September 10, producing minimum temperatures near 12–15°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome at 56.5% implied probability, as high-pressure patterns and low humidity enhance heat loss after daytime highs around 27–28°C. A competing warm-air advection scenario supports the 21°C-or-higher market at 43.5%, reflecting model spread on wind shifts or cloud cover that could limit cooling. These probabilities capture genuine short-term forecast uncertainty two days out, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum from official stations; historical early-September lows average near 16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$130結束日期
2026-09-10市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-based outlooks, point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and northeasterly winds for Madrid on September 10, producing minimum temperatures near 12–15°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome at 56.5% implied probability, as high-pressure patterns and low humidity enhance heat loss after daytime highs around 27–28°C. A competing warm-air advection scenario supports the 21°C-or-higher market at 43.5%, reflecting model spread on wind shifts or cloud cover that could limit cooling. These probabilities capture genuine short-term forecast uncertainty two days out, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum from official stations; historical early-September lows average near 16°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions