Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization and elevated global yields. The BoJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate target to around 1.25% at its September meeting amid persistent inflation, with August producer prices rising 7.6% and energy costs elevated by Middle East tensions. This follows the June hike to 1.0% and aligns with accelerating Tokyo CPI and a tight labor market. Fiscal expansion concerns, including record budget requests and proposed consumption tax relief, have added to debt-servicing worries, pushing yields to three-decade highs alongside the U.S. 10-year Treasury surge above 5%. These factors underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for yields ending 2026 at or above 3.0%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 13.6%
2.4-2.6% 5.1%
2.2-2.4% 4.5%
$29,258 交易量
$29,258 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
5%
2.4-2.6%
5%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
14%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 13.6%
2.4-2.6% 5.1%
2.2-2.4% 4.5%
$29,258 交易量
$29,258 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
$1,360 交易量
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 交易量
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 交易量
5%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 交易量
5%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 交易量
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 交易量
14%
3.0%+
$11,170 交易量
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization and elevated global yields. The BoJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate target to around 1.25% at its September meeting amid persistent inflation, with August producer prices rising 7.6% and energy costs elevated by Middle East tensions. This follows the June hike to 1.0% and aligns with accelerating Tokyo CPI and a tight labor market. Fiscal expansion concerns, including record budget requests and proposed consumption tax relief, have added to debt-servicing worries, pushing yields to three-decade highs alongside the U.S. 10-year Treasury surge above 5%. These factors underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for yields ending 2026 at or above 3.0%.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
市場開放時間： Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$29,258結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization and elevated global yields. The BoJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate target to around 1.25% at its September meeting amid persistent inflation, with August producer prices rising 7.6% and energy costs elevated by Middle East tensions. This follows the June hike to 1.0% and aligns with accelerating Tokyo CPI and a tight labor market. Fiscal expansion concerns, including record budget requests and proposed consumption tax relief, have added to debt-servicing worries, pushing yields to three-decade highs alongside the U.S. 10-year Treasury surge above 5%. These factors underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for yields ending 2026 at or above 3.0%.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
交易量
$29,258結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETJapan’s 10-year government bond yield, trading near 3.00% as of mid-September 2026, faces sustained upward pressure into year-end from the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization and elevated global yields. The BoJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate target to around 1.25% at its September meeting amid persistent inflation, with August producer prices rising 7.6% and energy costs elevated by Middle East tensions. This follows the June hike to 1.0% and aligns with accelerating Tokyo CPI and a tight labor market. Fiscal expansion concerns, including record budget requests and proposed consumption tax relief, have added to debt-servicing worries, pushing yields to three-decade highs alongside the U.S. 10-year Treasury surge above 5%. These factors underpin the 66.3% market-implied probability for yields ending 2026 at or above 3.0%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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