**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7 78%
11 6.1%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 交易量
$101,131 交易量
2026-08-31
少於5人
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
6%
12+
<1%
7 78%
11 6.1%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 交易量
$101,131 交易量
2026-08-31
少於5人
$22,734 交易量
1%
5
$17,511 交易量
3%
6
$27,247 交易量
1%
7
$16,977 交易量
78%
8
$4,623 交易量
1%
9
$2,208 交易量
5%
10
$1,873 交易量
1%
11
$2,845 交易量
6%
12+
$5,112 交易量
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$101,131結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$101,131結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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